Today the world marks one year since Vladimir Putin ordered the illegal invasion of Ukraine. Europe has been dragged back into conflict, the scale of which has not been seen since the 1940s when Hitler’s armies swept across the continent. Tens of thousands have died. Millions have been forced to flee. The once-great cities of Ukraine have been reduced to rubble by the onslaught of Russian firepower. The conflict shows no signs of ending, with both sides grinding out a horrific campaign of attrition in the Eastern Donbas and Southern Zaporizhzhia regions of the embattled country.
The war threatens not just the regional stability of Eastern Europe, but the safety of the entire world. Escalation remains a constant threat. There is a real danger that the conflict could spill across Ukraine’s borders, dragging other countries into a spiral of violence. The liberal world order is rapidly dissolving into antagonistic lines of division reminiscent of the Cold War. The war also has important implications for other brewing conflicts, with China watching carefully as it continues to deliberate over Taiwan.
Modern media formats can often reduce conflict to images and figures, abstracted from the heart-breaking realities of war. For this reason, it is vital that we are mindful of the human cost of the situation in Ukraine. This necessarily includes the plight of the millions of displaced citizens, many of whom haven’t been to their countries of origin for nearly a year.
When the war began, many nations around the world opened their borders to the millions fleeing the violence, with Poland alone taking in over 1.5 million people. It is encouraging to see solidarity with the Ukrainian and Russian refugees continuing to hold firm, but a more permanent answer is required while the political will to act is still present.
The status of Ukrainian refugees differs from country to country. In the UK, for example, Ukrainians have been granted visa-free rights to remain for an initial period of three years. This includes the right to work as well as access to public services. Although countries in the Schengen zone currently accept Ukrainian citizens visa-free, this is set to change from November. Those traveling from Ukraine will soon need to apply for a European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) permit before entering a Schengen country where they can then make asylum claims. This added bureaucratic hurdle will sadly complicate Ukrainian access to Europe and is perhaps a signal of a hardening of will to accommodate refugees in the future.
Policymakers need to plan for the grim possibility that this war will drag on. Recent precedent suggests that even if Russia defeated the Ukrainian armed forces, they would still doubtless face a determined guerrilla resistance campaign likely to drag on for years. If we imagine a conflict stretching for as long as the US operation in Iraq, we need to plan for fifteen years, not just one or two.
Whilst return to their homelands remains out of reach, both Ukrainian and Russian refugees need to be given the security that comes with the right to remain. Even this may not be enough. In the long-term, pathways to citizenship will need to be discussed for the many forced to flee the interminable situation in their homelands. Without guarantees over their settlement status, refugees’ ability to live, work and access key public services such as education and healthcare will be in jeopardy. No one benefits if millions of talented, hard-working, and entrepreneurial refugees are kept in such limbo.
Schengen zone countries will need to meet and agree on an equitable plan that provides for the eventuality that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians will be unable to return home any time soon. Some countries like the US and UK will have their own unilateral processes to consider when implementing this.
A year on and the future of Ukraine looks no more certain than on the fateful day the Russian tanks rolled across her borders. But there is hope. Putin’s ‘special operation’ has been nothing like the three-day blitzkrieg promised by his generals. Nor has the resolve of Western allies to support Ukraine collapsed as Russia expected. However, so many unknowns about the future of this war remain. In his recent visit to Kyiv, President Biden spoke of an ‘unwavering and unflagging commitment to Ukraine’s democracy’. If the West is to live up to this promise, it must be bold in securing the future of those who can’t return home.
